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2023年危地马拉大选

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总统选举
點票
100%
截至 23:50 北美中部时区–6 (北美中部时区)
 
Cesar Bernardo Arévalo de León (cropped).jpg
Sandra Torres (septiembre 2020) (cropped).jpg
候选人 贝尔纳多·阿雷瓦洛 桑德拉·托雷斯西班牙语Sandra Torres
政党 种子运动”党 全国希望联盟
竞选搭档 Karin Herrera英语Karin Herrera Romeo Guerra英语Romeo Guerra
民選得票 244,1661 156,7472
得票率 60.9% 39.1%


选前总统

亚历杭德罗·贾马特
前进党英语Vamos (Guatemala)

當選总统

贝尔纳多·阿雷瓦洛
种子运动

议会选举


共和国议会凡一百六十席
获得绝对多数需要81席
政党/派系 领袖 % 议席 ±
前进党 Víctor Valenzuela 18.69 39 +22
全国希望联盟 Adim Maldonado 15.85 28 -24
种子运动 Jonathan Menkos英语Jonathan Menkos 14.61 23 +16
Cabal (political party) Julio Héctor Estrada英语Julio Héctor Estrada 7.96 18 +18
Vision with Values Evelyn Morataya英语Evelyn Morataya 5.89 11 +4
价值党英语价值党 (危地马拉)统一党 阿尔瓦罗·恩里克·阿尔苏·埃斯科瓦尔 4.84 12 0
Will, Opportunity and Solidarity Orlando Blanco 3.78 4 +4
Todos (political party) Felipe Alejos 3.60 6 -1
温纳克民革联 Sonia Gutiérrez Raguay英语Sonia Gutiérrez Raguay 2.67 1 -6
Nosotros (political party) Nadia de León Torres英语Nadia de León Torres 2.50 3 +3
Bienestar Nacional (political party) Fidel Reyes Lee 2.38 4 -4
Victory (political party) Juan Carlos Rivera 2.17 3 -1
Blue Party (Guatemala) Jorge Villagrán 1.95 2 +2
Elephant Community英语Elephant Community Rodrigo Pellecer 1.87 2 +2
Commitment, Renewal and Order 奧斯卡·秦齊亞 (lost) 1.66 3 -3
Cambio (political party)英语Cambio (political party) Jorge Baldizón (lost) 1.02 1 +1
此为赢得议席的政党列表,详情请见下文。
前任议会主席英语危地马拉共和国议会主席
Shirley Rivera英语Shirley Rivera
前进党

2023年危地马拉大选危地马拉一场伴随政治风波的大选。与往次大选类似,总统及议会均将被选出。然而,国际媒体注意到是次选举遭到了该国保守派势力两个层面的全过程干预,却仍然产生一些出乎预期的结果,地区大国美国更是对是次选举中的异常状况罕见的对危地马拉提出警告。

选举干预

选举前该国对法制与新闻自由的迫害已加剧(如调查腐败的法官遭总检察长迫害而流亡国外,联合国专员遭到骚扰等),并受到联合国和欧盟的批评。

参选人注册也受到了广泛批评,危地马拉最高选举法院西班牙语Tribunal Supremo Electoral de Guatemala以副总统参选人Jordán Rodas英语Jordán Rodas的“合法性问题”含糊其辞地拒绝了在土著人民社群中颇受欢迎的政党争取人民解放运动总统参选人,并引发公民广泛抗议。[1][2]在土著民族聚居的农村地区,用废票抵制议会及第一轮总统选举的比例甚高,由于对选举公正性失去了信心,在全国范围内也有24%的废票。[3][4]

然而,即便是被审核通过的“种子运动”党参选团队,在第一轮被向选举妥协的城市居民选出后仍遭到建制派的第二轮反扑。包含将与种子运动党在第二轮角逐总统的“全国希望团结”党在内的十个政党在选举初步结果公布一周之后方才对选举结果提出的“选举舞弊”调查请求被危地马拉宪法法院西班牙语Corte de Constitucionalidad de Guatemala接受,致使该国最高选举法院不定期延迟了对首轮选举结果的认证。[5]7月12日,总检甚至宣布法官Fredy Orellana已在其要求下基于建党注册时的假签名指控中止2017年即已注册的种子运动党的合法地位,试图以次避免其总统候选人进入第二轮。[6]在仅存的剩余民主受到威胁后,危地马拉市民走上街头抗议司法系统对选举的干预。[7]选举观察员、联合国、美洲国家组织及欧盟施压危地马拉司法系统尊重毫无舞弊证据的选举结果,连同美英两国都加入施压行列声称坚决捍卫“危地马拉的民主”。[5][8][9][10][11]

尽管中止种子运动政党地位法律行动隔日即被宪法法院因《选举与政党法》第92条“选举期间不得中止已参选政党的政党地位”推翻,直至一个月之后第二轮选举前两天最高法才永久性推翻这一行动。[12]

选举结果

总统

尽管是次选举不承诺多民族主义的种子运动参选人阿雷瓦洛到第二轮角逐也未能大量争取到北方横断带西班牙语Franja Transversal del Norte土著社群的选票[13],且第二轮选举投票率远低于往届选举,但经历了第一轮选举之后的风波后在土著人民聚居的农村选区已鲜少有人用废票或白票抵制第二轮选举。托雷斯凭借其昔日在土著社群的长期经营仍吸纳了参与投票的部分土著人民的大量选票,但由于其在城市地区声望极低,阿雷瓦洛如预期当选总统。

候选人竞选搭档政党第一轮第二轮
票数%票数%
Sandra Torres英语Sandra TorresRomeo Guerra英语Romeo Guerra全国希望联盟881,59220.981,567,47239.10
贝尔纳多·阿雷瓦洛Karin Herrera英语Karin Herrera种子运动654,53415.582,441,66160.90
Manuel Conde Orellana英语Manuel Conde OrellanaLuis Antonio SuárezVamos (Guatemala)英语Vamos (Guatemala)435,63110.37
Armando Castillo (politician)英语Armando Castillo (politician)Édgar GrisoliaVision with Values英语Vision with Values404,0599.61
Edmond Mulet英语Edmond MuletMáximo Santa Cruz英语Máximo Santa CruzCabal (political party)英语Cabal (political party)371,8578.85
Zury Ríos英语Zury RíosHéctor Cifuentes英语Héctor CifuentesValor (political party)英语Valor (political party)統一黨365,0288.69
Manuel Villacorta英语Manuel VillacortaJorge Mario García España英语Jorge Mario García EspañaWill, Opportunity and Solidarity英语Will, Opportunity and Solidarity238,6865.68
Giovanni ReyesÓscar FigueroaBienestar Nacional英语Bienestar Nacional141,7143.37
Amílcar RiveraFernando MazariegosVictory (political party)英语Victory (political party)135,5913.23
Amílcar PopMónica Enríquez温纳克危民革联–玉米87,6762.09
Ricardo SagastumeGuillermo GonzálezTodos (political party)英语Todos (political party)76,5821.82
Rudy GuzmánDiego GonzálezNosotros (political party)英语Nosotros (political party)66,1161.57
Isaac Farchi英语Isaac FarchiMauricio ZaldañaBlue Party (Guatemala)英语Blue Party (Guatemala)61,4721.46
Julio RiveraJosé UrrutiaMy Family46,0921.10
Francisco ArredondoFrancisco BermúdezCommitment, Renewal and Order英语Commitment, Renewal and Order41,9481.00
Giulio TalamontiÓscar BarrientosRepublican Union (Guatemala)40,3580.96
Hugo PeñaHugo JohnsonElephant Community英语Elephant Community39,2710.93
Rudio Lecsan MéridaRubén Darío RosalesHumanist Party of Guatemala英语Humanist Party of Guatemala34,2850.82
Rafael Espada英语Rafael EspadaArturo HerradorRepublican Party (Guatemala)英语Republican Party (Guatemala)32,1390.76
Sammy MoralesMiguel Ángel MoirNational Convergence Front英语National Convergence Front22,3160.53
Álvaro TrujilloMiguel Ángel IbarraCambio (political party)英语Cambio (political party)17,7150.42
Luis Lam PadillaOtto MarroquínNational Integration Party (Guatemala)7,7800.19
总共4,202,442100.004,009,133100.00
有效票数4,202,44275.624,009,13395.25
无效票数966,38917.39147,1653.50
空白票数388,4426.9952,6871.25
总票数5,557,273100.004,208,985100.00
已登记选民/投票率9,249,79460.089,361,06844.96
资料来源:TSE (首轮;99.13%票已计) TSE (次轮;已100%完成计票)

国会

Congreso de Guatemala (2023)
政党或政党联盟NationalDistrict总席数+/–
票数%席数票数%席数
Vamos (Guatemala)英语Vamos (Guatemala)628,12615.066696,32515.543339+23
全国希望团结538,01012.905571,86712.762328–26
种子运动488,69211.725430,2979.601823+16
Cabal (political party)英语Cabal (political party)371,2158.903401,0358.951518New
Vision with Values英语Vision with Values288,5466.923258,6055.77811+4
Valor (political party)英语Valor (political party)統一黨Valor–Unionist229,8615.512124,1332.7735New
Valor (political party)英语Valor (political party)197,5384.4177–2
統一黨22,3630.5000–3
Will, Opportunity and Solidarity英语Will, Opportunity and Solidarity186,4384.471178,7503.9934New
Todos (political party)英语Todos (political party)169,1014.051198,8934.4456–1
危民革联–玉米温纳克危民革联–玉米–温纳克133,6943.21125,0130.5601New
温纳克76,1371.7000–3
民革联87,6871.9600–3
Nosotros (political party)英语Nosotros (political party)131,2173.151138,7423.1023New
Victory (political party)英语Victory (political party)124,9463.001126,8302.8323
Bienestar Nacional英语Bienestar Nacional112,7422.701121,4882.7134–4
Blue Party (Guatemala)英语Blue Party (Guatemala)98,4872.361109,8022.4512New
Elephant Community英语Elephant Community95,4352.29190,0402.0112New
我们能党86,4752.07087,0111.9400–1
Commitment, Renewal and Order英语Commitment, Renewal and Order84,6672.030102,4212.2933–3
争取人民解放运动74,8021.79081,1421.8100–1
Humanist Party of Guatemala英语Humanist Party of Guatemala61,5641.48072,0591.6100–6
Cambio (political party)英语Cambio (political party)52,7541.26087,8211.9611New
National Advancement Party英语National Advancement Party45,9401.10041,5940.9300–2
My Family45,4021.09044,5760.9900New
Republican Union (Guatemala)34,9820.84034,1590.7600New
National Convergence Front英语National Convergence Front28,8270.69029,3860.6600–8
Guatemalan People's Party英语Guatemalan People's Party23,8370.57012,6720.2800New
Republican Party (Guatemala)英语Republican Party (Guatemala)21,6580.52020,1150.4500New
National Integration Party (Guatemala)13,9270.33012,4160.2800New
总共4,171,345100.00324,480,917100.00128160
资料来源:TSE (99.13% counted, national votes) TSE

中美洲议会

政党票数%席数+/–
Vamos (Guatemala)英语Vamos (Guatemala)655,90617.755+2
全国希望联盟594,91816.104–1
种子运动425,62911.523+2
Vision with Values英语Vision with Values274,1937.422+1
Valor (political party)英语Valor (political party)統一黨256,2916.942+1
Todos (political party)英语Todos (political party)166,5094.511
Will, Opportunity and Solidarity英语Will, Opportunity and Solidarity155,1814.201+1
Nosotros (political party)英语Nosotros (political party)131,2843.551+1
Victory (political party)英语Victory (political party)120,1063.251+1
民革联温纳克118,9983.220–2
Bienestar Nacional英语Bienestar Nacional108,0302.920
Elephant Community英语Elephant Community100,9322.730
Blue Party (Guatemala)英语Blue Party (Guatemala)95,5402.590
我们能党86,1162.330
Commitment, Renewal and Order英语Commitment, Renewal and Order81,8922.220–1
Humanist Party of Guatemala英语Humanist Party of Guatemala70,2191.900
Cambio (political party)英语Cambio (political party)55,2761.500
My Family48,9481.320
National Advancement Party英语National Advancement Party41,7121.130
Republican Union (Guatemala)34,4150.930
National Convergence Front英语National Convergence Front28,9300.780–2
Guatemalan People's Party英语Guatemalan People's Party23,4350.630
Republican Party (Guatemala)英语Republican Party (Guatemala)20,6660.560
总共3,695,126100.0020
有效票数3,695,12665.83
无效票数1,272,52122.67
空白票数645,51111.50
总票数5,613,158100.00
资料来源:TSE (99.10% percent counted)

媒体

选举前,各路媒体及分析人士普遍看好民调较高的极右翼候选人Zury Rios,[14]一些国际媒体关注多名参选人遭无端拒绝参选的问题;第一轮选举完成后,Zury Rios低票落选,英文国际媒体及分析人士开始关注腐败的司法系统干预选举及高废票率的问题。

中文媒体则比较关注台湾而非危地马拉的国内问题,如法广以《危地马拉举行总统大选 日媒:亲台派暂居上风》为题展开报道[15]中共党媒则例行报道选举程序本身而不深入該国国内政治亦不涉及对台湾问题的影响。[16]

参考文献

  1. ^ Guatemala: caso a caso de candidatos rechazados o admitidos. Los Angeles Times. 2023-02-24. (原始内容存档于2023-06-28) (西班牙语). 
  2. ^ Guatemala: Múltiples protestas contra tribunal electoral. Voz de América. 2023-03-16 [2023-08-20]. (原始内容存档于2023-05-26) (西班牙语). 
  3. ^ Pérez D., Sonia; Sherman, Christopher. Guatemala voters send 2 presidential candidates on opposite sides of political spectrum to a runoff. 美联社. 2023-06-26 [2023-08-11]. (原始内容存档于2023-07-19). 
  4. ^ Troubled Guatemala headed for runoff after inconclusive election. 法蘭西24. 法新社. 2023-06-26 [2023-08-11]. (原始内容存档于2023-06-28). 
  5. ^ 5.0 5.1 Guatemala's high court steps into election, suspends release of official results. AP. 2023-07-02 [2023-08-20]. (原始内容存档于2023-10-08). 
  6. ^ Juzgado ordena la suspensión de la personalidad jurídica del Movimiento Semilla.. Prensa Libre. 2023-07-12 [2023-07-12]. (原始内容存档于2023-07-13) (西班牙语). 
  7. ^ Guatemalans protest government interference in August's election. NBC News. [2023-08-20]. (原始内容存档于2023-10-05). 
  8. ^ Guatemala court orders presidential ballot review, opposition cries foul. Reuters. 2023-07-01 [2023-07-03]. (原始内容存档于2023-07-19). 
  9. ^ Guatemala election: Court orders probe after surprise result. Deutsche Welle. 2023-07-02 [2023-07-03]. (原始内容存档于2023-09-26). 
  10. ^ US warns against efforts to interfere with Guatemala election result. The Guardian. 2023-07-03 [2023-07-03]. (原始内容存档于2023-11-06). 
  11. ^ Secretario General de la ONU sigue "con preocupación" la situación electoral en Guatemala. Swiss Info. 2023-07-03 [2023-07-03]. (原始内容存档于2023-08-27) (西班牙语). 
  12. ^ Guatemala court permanently blocks suspension of Seed Movement party ahead of Sunday's election. 华盛顿邮报. 
  13. ^ Ollantay Itzamná. Guatemala: Why doesn’t Semilla support plurinationality in a multicultural country? [危地马拉:在一个文化多元的社会中种子运动为何未能支持多民族运动?]. 危地马拉城. Pressenza国际通讯社. 2023-08-02 [2023-08-22]. (原始内容存档于2023-08-22) (西班牙语及英语). 
  14. ^ Zury Ríos Campaigns to Lead Guatemala’s Faltering Democracy. [2023-08-20]. (原始内容存档于2023-11-06). 
  15. ^ 危地马拉举行总统大选 日媒:亲台派暂居上风. [2023-08-20]. (原始内容存档于2023-08-20). 
  16. ^ 危地马拉举行总统选举第二轮投票. 新华网. 2023-08-21 [2023-08-21]. (原始内容存档于2023-08-20) (中文(中国大陆)). 

外部链结